The fourth quarter of 2017 is currently slated for massive overcapacity, contrary to expectations, as the traditional seasonal culling of capacity has not yet been scheduled, according to data provided by SeaIntel Maritime Analysis.
When looking at the past five years, SeaIntel informed that 25 sailings will have to blanked on Asia-Europe, while Transpacific will require the blanking of 67 average-sized sailings.
Over the 2012-2016 period, the fourth quarter deployed capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade lane has on average contracted by -6.6% relative to the third quarter, but 2017-Q4 is currently scheduled to shrink by just -0.8% relative to 2017-Q3.
If the same seasonality is assumed, a total of 193,000 TEU would have to be blanked over the entire Q4 period, equal to the blanking of 13.5 average sailings, or roughly one sailing per week. SeaIntel said.
On Asia-Mediterranean, assuming the average 2012-2016 Q/Q contraction of -10.2% holds true, the trade lane is currently scheduled for an excess capacity 126,000 TEU in Q4, which would equate to the blanking of 11.5 average-sized sailings, or a little less than one per week.
Deployed capacity on Asia-US West Coast in 2012-2016 has seen Q4 on average contract by -4.5% compared to Q3, which would leave an excess of 184,000 TEU of capacity currently scheduled for 2017-Q4, equal to the blanking of a massive 25.1 average-sized sailings, or close to two sailings per week.
On Asia-US East Coast, deployed capacity is currently scheduled to grow by 4.1% over 2017-Q3, which would yield a Y/Y growth of a staggering 21.9%. This would mean an excess capacity of 247,000 TEU if the 2012-2016 seasonality is assumed, which would require the blanking of a staggering 32.0 average-sized sailings, or almost 2.5 sailings per week.