Non-delivery of vessels on the orderbook, which has been a prominent theme in shipbuilding in the last decade, looks set to be increasing again this year amid troubled shipping markets, according to Clarksons Research.
In the year to date, changes to the market environment have been important across all of the major sectors, and this increased market risk looks set to drive non-delivery to record levels in full year 2016.
Based on the difference between scheduled deliveries from the start year orderbook and actual deliveries, Clarksons said that the total non-delivery increased significantly with the onset of the financial crisis, from 8% in dwt terms in 2007 to 33% in 2009. In the year to date this figure has hit 41%, and 2016 seems likely to set a new record.
In general, the uptick in non-delivery over the past two years has been driven by an increase in market risk across the major sectors amid depressed markets.
In the bulk carrier sector weak earnings have persisted through 2016, causing non-delivery to rise to 50% in dwt terms in the year to date, up from 42% in 2015. Although tanker non-delivery has fallen from 32% last year to 23% in 2016 so far, due in part to firm earnings in the first half of the year, the biggest change has been in the boxship sector, where non-delivery has risen from 13% in 2015 to 39%, following a sharp decline in rates across most ship sizes.
Weak markets have also added to owner risk, with many owners negotiating delays to the delivery of vessels, particularly bulk carriers.