Bright Outlook for Crude, Product Tankers

Source:IHS Maritime 360
2015.03.25
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The outlook for both the crude oil and the product tanker segments looks encouraging, say Norway-based shipping analysts.

Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production to 10 million bpd, an increase of 0.4 million bpd from February. "Saudi Arabia has increased their crude exports so far this year, which spiked to 7.4 million bpd, up from below 7 million bpd for most of the second half of 2014," said Kurt Waldeland and Erik Nikolai Stavseth, shipping analysts at Oslo-based Arctic Securities.

"The increase in Saudi production and export volumes has been reflected in crude tanker freight rates in 2015."

"A larger number of spot fixtures out of the Middle Eastern gulf have supported freight rates and VLCC spot earnings have remained in the range of $50,000/day - exceptionally firm considering the time of year. We expect the crude tanker market balance to improve in 2015 on the back of increased tonne-mile demand paired with limited supply grow," they said in a daily market report.

At the same time, as for the product tanker sector, structural change in refining capacity is set to fuel further growth in demand. According to Nicolay Dyvik, Oyvin Berle and Petter Haugen, shipping analysts at DNB Markets in Oslo, average annual demand will grow by 6% from 2015 to 2017.

"We see future demand growth being driven mainly by accelerated expansion of refining capacity skewed towards the Middle East and China, although increased price volatility in petroleum products could potentially add to this," they said.

"On our estimates product tanker fleet growth will peak in 2015 at 6% before slowing to 5% in 2016 and then to 4% in 2017. As the 'fuel efficiency argument' is far less compelling with bunker prices at less than half the 2013 average of US$600/barrel (year to date the bunker price has averaged US$281/barrel), we have lowered our future new ordering estimates from an average of 9% to 5% pa," they said in a report on the shipping markets.

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