Lending capacity for shipping in Germany could bounce back in the coming years despite significant portfolio reductions by local banks, German restructuring consultant and investment manager Notos said.

Significant loan amounts for shipping could become available from domestic institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies as an alternative to classic ship-mortgage lending by banks, according to Notos' saimanaging partner Jens Rohweder .

"It is potentially a multi-billion dollar market. In any case, you need at least US$500 million to US$1bn for a shipping debt fund in order to build up a diverse portfolio," he said.

Notos is among the new breed of registered alternative investment managers in Germany who have set out to raise fresh funds from institutional investors for shipping, in a shift away from the country's once prevalent KG financing scheme, which broke down after the 2008 financial crash amid mass insolvencies of one-ship KG companies.

Insurance companies and pension funds tended to give shipping a wide berth in the past two decades. However, sustained low interest rates and quantitative easing by central banks left them no choice other than to diversify their investments beyond sovereign bonds if they wanted to continue generating returns, Rohweder said.

Shipping debt at loan-to-value limits of about 50% could be a very safe option for them, as ships' market values probably have only limited further downside potential in many segments, he said.