A.G. Pappadakis and Co Expects Consolidation in Bulker Market
Shipping rates sooner or later will recover but market consolidation will likely be needed in the dry bulk sector. That's the view of veteran Greek owner Nicholas (Nicky) Pappadakis, chairman at family firm A.G. Pappadakis and Co.
"Will shipping copy the airlines industry where a large amalgamation is taking place?" he muses. He notes how in 2012 there were around 1,850 privately owned companies active in dry bulk with a fleet ranging between three and eight ships, while 15 or so companies had 100 ships or more. "I think this is a quite interesting statistic," says the former Intercargo chairman.
Dry bulk finds itself in its current crisis, the seasoned shipowner says, because of overtonnaging – too many speculative orders in the past are now haunting the sector – combined with the slowdown in the Chinese economy.
"Those are the two main reasons but personally I'm confident that in the future dry bulk shipping will eventually rebalance," says Pappadakis who started working in the ship chartering business in 1961 and has lived through nine downturns in his career.
Looking into the recent dry bulk past, Pappadakis says that China and India have been "the two shoulders of the shipping boom" and now, despite the slowdown registered this year in the GDP growth of China, he is confident that India will contribute to the world economy in the coming years. "Both the countries," he says, "have a long way to go before they become fully industrialized."
Bulk carriers rates sooner or later will rebound, Pappadakis insists. "I think it's a question of only when the rebalancing between demand and supply of tonnage will happen. Because it's sure that it's going to happen. What I can't say it's when it is going to happen."