The crude tanker market is expected to experience a limited winter upturn, as only the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) segment showed sharp upward movements last month, with spot earnings on TD3 rising largely to approximately US$40,000/day, showed data from Maritime Strategies International (MSI).

Spot activity in other sectors mostly moved sideways, although one-year T/C estimates have seen some improvement in the sector. As a result, expectations of a relatively muted winter upturn remain intact but policy decisions are looming large.

According to Tim Smith, MSI Senior Analyst, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections isn't likely to have a huge effect on the market in the near-term unless it destabilises the US economy.

He added that in the longer-term there is "clear risk to shipping should protectionist policies be imposed, whilst domestic energy production in the US could be further encouraged as red tape is removed."

For the fourth quarter VLCC upswing to be maintained, the market will need to see substantial draw from Asian demand. A renewed surge in Chinese buying implies further constructive conditions, but having attained levels close to its expected forecasts and given pressure from fleet growth, any major gains "are likely to be limited and brief."