As new order momentum of shipbuilding industry bounces back, it is expected to see a market of ‘Winner takes all’.
Analyst Lee Kang-Rok at KTB Investment & Securities of Korea said at a press conference held in Korea Exchange on August 13, “Due to a restructuring trend  in shipbuilding industry, the industry is reorganized into a market of ‘Winner takes all’,” and forecasted, “As commercial ship market rebounds toward recovery after hitting the bottom, survived shipbuilders are welcoming more orders, expected to benefit greatly.”
Lee explained, "Yards which failed to secure new contracts fell behind in competition and disappeared as new orders plummeted in 2008 and 2009.”
According to Clarkson Research, the number of global shipyards amounted to 612 as of 2008 however the remaining yards are tallied to be 482 currently that 21% of yards turned out to have closed.
Moreover, of the 482, 396 yards said that they secured orderbook till the first quarter of this year that 86 yards might go bankruptcy unless they ink new contracts.
However, demand for commercial vessel has recovered recently and new contracts are being focused mainly on yards which survived newbuilding competition, said the analyst.
Lee prospected that ‘a new opportunity’ will knock on builders soon. Entering upon the second half of this year, shipyards will see their slots to be scheduled for the next two years that they could contract new orders selectively. Also, newbuilding price is likely to rise that yard profitability is anticipated to notably improve starting from 2015.
The analyst forecasted that global new orders for commercial vessel would record 22.7% of growth rate on annual average till 2016 and recover to 38.10m cgt, or the amount of new orders seen from the past (2000-2005).